Following the 4% decline in 2010/11, world cotton mill use is expected to recover slowly in 2011/12. The cotton mill usage in 2011/12 is expected to be 24.7 million tons, which is 1.5% higher than in 2010/11.
This growth will benefit from the increase in the supply of cotton, but growth will slow due to high cotton prices and competition from chemical fibers. However, the possibility of a further recession in the global economy may reduce these expectations. China, India, and Pakistan will drive growth in global cotton mill use in 2011/12.
Global cotton production in 2011/12 is expected to increase by 8% to 26.9 million tons, the highest output since 2004/05. The main reason for the increase in production was China, followed by India, Pakistan, Australia and Turkey. China’s production is expected to increase by 13% to 7.2 million tons, India’s output by 9% to 6 million tons, Pakistan’s growth by 19% to 2.3 million tons, Australia’s production by 23% to 1.1 million tons, Turkey’s output by 42% to 641, 000 tons.
Imports in 2011/12 are expected to rise by 7% to 8.1 million tons due to higher output, higher consumption, and the Chinese government's rebuilding of reserve cotton stocks. Australia, Brazil and India will promote export growth, Australia and Brazil will record record highs in Chengdu in 2010/11, and most of the cotton will be exported in 2011/12. U.S. exports are expected to decrease by 20% to 2.5 million tons due to the reduction in export sources.
Due to the expected surplus of 2.2 million tons of cotton, the global 2011/12 ending stocks increased by 24% to 11.2 million tons. The increase in inventory-to-consumption usage of countries outside of China will result in a significant decline in the average annual price of the Cotlook A Index. However, the average annual price of the A-index may remain at a 10-year average price of 60 cents/lb or more.
This growth will benefit from the increase in the supply of cotton, but growth will slow due to high cotton prices and competition from chemical fibers. However, the possibility of a further recession in the global economy may reduce these expectations. China, India, and Pakistan will drive growth in global cotton mill use in 2011/12.
Global cotton production in 2011/12 is expected to increase by 8% to 26.9 million tons, the highest output since 2004/05. The main reason for the increase in production was China, followed by India, Pakistan, Australia and Turkey. China’s production is expected to increase by 13% to 7.2 million tons, India’s output by 9% to 6 million tons, Pakistan’s growth by 19% to 2.3 million tons, Australia’s production by 23% to 1.1 million tons, Turkey’s output by 42% to 641, 000 tons.
Imports in 2011/12 are expected to rise by 7% to 8.1 million tons due to higher output, higher consumption, and the Chinese government's rebuilding of reserve cotton stocks. Australia, Brazil and India will promote export growth, Australia and Brazil will record record highs in Chengdu in 2010/11, and most of the cotton will be exported in 2011/12. U.S. exports are expected to decrease by 20% to 2.5 million tons due to the reduction in export sources.
Due to the expected surplus of 2.2 million tons of cotton, the global 2011/12 ending stocks increased by 24% to 11.2 million tons. The increase in inventory-to-consumption usage of countries outside of China will result in a significant decline in the average annual price of the Cotlook A Index. However, the average annual price of the A-index may remain at a 10-year average price of 60 cents/lb or more.
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