Weak textile demand, cotton prices are dilemma

Last week (3.12-3.16), the domestic spot market continued to be light, and the sharp decline in electronic prices drove domestic cotton prices to decline; the textile market continued to slump and yarn inventory increased; due to the support of new year's reserve prices, the price of electronic discs was pulled by month and month. Larger than a thousand dollars; With the arrival of large quantities of imported cotton, the demand for quotas has further increased; last week, the price of international cotton fell, and the spread at home and abroad further increased. During the week, the average price of China's cotton price index (CC Index328) was 15,974 yuan per ton, which was a drop of 20 yuan from the previous week; 229 grades were 20,890 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan; and 527 grades were 16,945 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan. Last week, the volume of electronic synthesis decreased, the quantity of orders increased, and the center of gravity continued to move downwards.

First, the domestic spot: weak demand for textiles market Dilemma last week, the spot price of cotton continued to oscillate slightly, a dilemma. Affected by the fall in raw material prices this week, the price of cotton yarn continued to fall, corporate profits remained at a low cost or a small loss, the domestic sales market was not good, the export orders were insufficient, and although the production started at a high level, it only maintained the operation of machinery and retained workers. The price of cotton electronic discs fell sharply, and the confidence that the company had just started to extinguish again. Companies continued to choose to pay for storage, but the rains continued in the south, which was not conducive to the processing and transportation of enterprises. The situation of cotton shipments in Xinjiang in March remains severe. At present, daily shipments of vehicles are about 200 cars. The renovation of the Longhai Line has limited the number of empty vehicles entering Xinjiang. The reserve cotton accounted for 100 vehicles, followed by the large amount of cotton imported through Alashankou this year, occupying 20 cars/day, and only 80 vehicles left to transport commodity cotton. As of March 12, Xinjiang Reserve Cotton shipped a total of 7,000 vehicles, totaling 310,000 tons. At present, there are still 2.1 million tons of cotton waiting to be shipped in each station's shipping lines, of which 1.32 million tons are reserved.

As of March 16, 2011, the cumulative transaction volume of cotton purchases in 2011 was 2.91 million tons. In Xinjiang, the cumulative turnover was 1.61 million tons, with a cumulative turnover of 1.3 million tons in the mainland. The spot market continues to be weak. Although the planned reserve volume has decreased compared with the previous week, the actual amount of reserves has increased compared to last week, of which the main one is inland, which has grown by more than 14,000 tons; Xinjiang has grown by more than 1,000 tons; Hebei and Shandong provinces pay The proportion of reserves has continued to increase, and Xinjiang and Hubei provinces have decreased.

Second, the electronic match: continue to shrink down the amount of Masukura last week (3.12-3.16), the national cotton trading market, merchandise cotton electronic trading transaction turnover of 73860 tons, compared with the previous trading week, reduce the volume of 120 tons. The weekly order volume increased by 4,660 tons and the accumulated order quantity was 114,060 tons.

When Zhou Yi has the following characteristics: First, the total turnover of the week compared to the previous week, slightly lower, the market down again, wait-and-see atmosphere is getting stronger, the average daily trading volume of 14,772 tons, of which the MA1205 contracts in the week of the scale of the warehouse are reduced, the transaction is higher than A week to reduce the 2400 tons, MA1207 contract week up to 1760 tons Masukura; Second, continued to increase the amount of orders in the week, far more obvious Masukura, which MA1207 is still Masukura main, but the rate has slowed down from the previous week, other The contract growth rate has decreased from the previous week. Thirdly, the highest price for the week's contract was 21,100 yuan for the MA1208 contract, which was 490 yuan less than last week. The lowest price was 19,615 yuan for the MA1203 contract, which was 415 yuan less than last week, and the volatility of the market expanded; The average contract price of MA1204 and MA1207 fell by 350 yuan for the week, and the average price of MA1203 contract fell by 288 yuan to the smallest contract of the week. The rest of the contract fell between 302-330 yuan, of which the far month MA1208 contract continued to top the contract at an average price of 20897 yuan/ton. In recent months, the average price of the MA1203 contract fell below the 20,000 mark to 19,881 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of CC Index328 was 575 yuan, and the spread was smaller than last week.

Third, the international market: Continuation of weak spot prices fell last week, ICE cotton futures fell 5 consecutive trading days in the US cotton export weekly data is good, while the US dollar fell, the external grain market generally led by the higher prices rebounded, but not a good time Long, and then continued to fall in the last trading day, the overall pattern of weakness continues; Cotlook spot upland cotton prices continue to decline, the market appears for the recent shipment of cotton inquiry. Weekly average price of Cotlook A index was 98.21 cents/lb, down 1.08 cents from the previous week, and ICE's average weekly contract price was 87.60 cents/lb, down 3.15 cents from the previous week.

Fourth, the outlook outlook The latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs show that in February 2012, China exported approximately US$9.712 billion worth of textiles and clothing, which was a year-on-year decrease of 7.01% and a decrease of 54.87% compared to the previous period. Exports of textiles and garments were “slummed”. This year's February was not pure. Second, last year's February coincided with the Lunar New Year. In this case, exports hit a new low this year, which made us have to worry about the current situation of foreign trade. During the period of the Ministry of Commerce, people said that various policies to promote imports will be introduced in the near future. Sources recently reported that they will be introduced in April. The downstream sales were sluggish, and the cotton price was only downgraded in a steady manner, supported by storage, and prices may all be in such a dilemma by the end of this month. Some enterprises are concerned that the latter countries will issue additional quotas, so the enthusiasm for deposits is high.