In the first half of 2012, the market price trend of domestic acrylic fibers basically presented three stages: The first stage was the stage of rising at the beginning of the year. Affected by the market's expectation of rising demand and stocking intentions at the beginning of the year, from January to March, the domestic acrylic fiber market continued to rise under the pressure of rising cost support. The manufacturers’ prices were adjusted three times, and the price of acrylic staple fibers was changed from 19100 at the end of January. Yuan/ton, rose to 21800 yuan/ton, a month's rise was over 14%; the second stage was the finishing stage. With the continuous increase of manufacturers' quotation, the spot market reached a high level, but the expected demand performance at the beginning of the year was weak, and the downstream market did not follow up with high-priced raw materials. As a result, the acrylic fiber market went into sideways consolidation until early April. The trend is stable; the third stage is negative accumulation, and the market continues to bottom out. After entering mid-April, due to the continued weakness in the demand side, production and sales of acrylic fiber manufacturers have slowed down, inventory levels have risen, and the prices of acrylic fiber makers have been continuously lowered. By the end of June, the price of acrylic fiber dropped to 15,400 yuan per ton, which was the highest level in the first half of the year, a decrease of nearly 30%, the lowest level in the year.
Demand weakness dragged down temporarily
Specifically, after the Spring Festival, due to the stock market demand at the end of the year and higher raw material prices support, the acrylic price trend showed a "good start" after the holiday. In February, prices continued to soar, rising from RMB 19,100/tonne (acrylic staple fiber price index) at the end of January to RMB 21800/tonne at the end of February, and nearly 14% in January. However, as the market entered March, due to the weaker-than-expected increase in orders in the downstream market and the obstruction of the increase in the price of acrylic fiber, the buying demand showed weakness and the market stalled. However, due to the continued lack of demand for domestic acrylic fiber manufacturers, the inventory level Under pressure, the market mentality declined sharply. At the same time, as the price of raw materials for acrylonitrile in the upper reaches declined, the market cost of acrylic fibers weakened and the market consolidation phase quickly ended. At the beginning of mid-April, the prices began to fall sharply downwards during the mid-to-late period. The overall price decline of 3,000 yuan / ton, the market sentiment fell significantly bearish, but due to the lack of orders in the downstream market, acrylic fiber production and sales continue to pressure, inventory slow digestion, affected by this, manufacturers to reduce production and increase burden, and maintenance in May The plan was concentrated, but in May, although the factory was overhauled, the start-up load of the industry was once lowered to 40%. However, due to the weak market demand, the market's stabilization support was limited. Therefore, in mid-to-late May, the prices of domestic acrylic fiber manufacturers dropped sharply again, and the price of acrylic 1.5D staple fiber fell to around 16,800 yuan to 17,000 yuan/ton. After entering the month of June, the supply and demand of the domestic acrylic fiber market is still lack of good support, although the manufacturers to reduce production and lighten, and some ease the pressure on the inventory, but due to weak demand, the stagnation of spot resources, industrial production and sales trend is still under pressure, coupled with continued raw material prices Exploring, the cost support of acrylic fiber declined, and bearish expectations rose. By the end of June, the settlement of manufacturers has been substantially lowered to release the bearish atmosphere in the market. At the same time, the price of raw materials has stopped falling. The bottom of the acrylic fiber has appeared and the intention of buying has increased. However, due to the increase in off-season prices in the downstream yarn market, the demand for raw materials is limited, and the demand for acrylic fibers is limited. Pull up is still limited. Constrained by this, manufacturers are more cautious in their offer prices, and they tend to increase slightly. By August, the price of acrylic staple fiber gradually recovered to around 17,000 yuan/ton.
The cost of pushing up is unpredictable
After the domestic acrylic fiber market reached its bottom at the end of June, it was supported by the strong bottom and the rising cost of raw materials. The market’s low replenishment and buying atmosphere gradually increased, and the manufacturers’ prices were expected to increase, and the market showed a steady upward trend. In early August, the spot of acrylic staple fiber was negotiated to between RMB 17,000 and RMB 17,500 per ton, but due to the lack of demand support from the downstream yarn market, there was no significant improvement in the production and sales trend. Subject to this restriction, the upward path for the price of acrylic fiber is relatively sluggish and it is mainly pushed up. Acrylic fiber manufacturers still find it difficult to smoothly pass on raw material gains and face greater cost pressures.
Therefore, in August and September, the prices of acrylic fiber manufacturers are still facing higher costs and are expected to push up. Although the demand side lacks upward support, there is still room for some manufacturers to increase their prices, but due to the temporary lack of demand growth, the market is moving upwards. Relatively gentle, slightly up-based. In September, the price of acrylic fibers was at a high level, and the estimated price was about 18,500 yuan/ton. In October, the market may continue to consolidate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price trend of acrylonitrile in the upstream raw materials, as the supply of acrylonitrile in the market tends to be stable and new domestic units are put into operation, or bring pressure on acrylonitrile prices. At the same time, the downstream market orders and domestic sales may have some changes, or affect the demand for acrylic fibers. In general, the short-term cost of acrylic fiber is still rising, but the medium-to-long-term optimistic expectations are still cautious.
Demand weakness dragged down temporarily
Specifically, after the Spring Festival, due to the stock market demand at the end of the year and higher raw material prices support, the acrylic price trend showed a "good start" after the holiday. In February, prices continued to soar, rising from RMB 19,100/tonne (acrylic staple fiber price index) at the end of January to RMB 21800/tonne at the end of February, and nearly 14% in January. However, as the market entered March, due to the weaker-than-expected increase in orders in the downstream market and the obstruction of the increase in the price of acrylic fiber, the buying demand showed weakness and the market stalled. However, due to the continued lack of demand for domestic acrylic fiber manufacturers, the inventory level Under pressure, the market mentality declined sharply. At the same time, as the price of raw materials for acrylonitrile in the upper reaches declined, the market cost of acrylic fibers weakened and the market consolidation phase quickly ended. At the beginning of mid-April, the prices began to fall sharply downwards during the mid-to-late period. The overall price decline of 3,000 yuan / ton, the market sentiment fell significantly bearish, but due to the lack of orders in the downstream market, acrylic fiber production and sales continue to pressure, inventory slow digestion, affected by this, manufacturers to reduce production and increase burden, and maintenance in May The plan was concentrated, but in May, although the factory was overhauled, the start-up load of the industry was once lowered to 40%. However, due to the weak market demand, the market's stabilization support was limited. Therefore, in mid-to-late May, the prices of domestic acrylic fiber manufacturers dropped sharply again, and the price of acrylic 1.5D staple fiber fell to around 16,800 yuan to 17,000 yuan/ton. After entering the month of June, the supply and demand of the domestic acrylic fiber market is still lack of good support, although the manufacturers to reduce production and lighten, and some ease the pressure on the inventory, but due to weak demand, the stagnation of spot resources, industrial production and sales trend is still under pressure, coupled with continued raw material prices Exploring, the cost support of acrylic fiber declined, and bearish expectations rose. By the end of June, the settlement of manufacturers has been substantially lowered to release the bearish atmosphere in the market. At the same time, the price of raw materials has stopped falling. The bottom of the acrylic fiber has appeared and the intention of buying has increased. However, due to the increase in off-season prices in the downstream yarn market, the demand for raw materials is limited, and the demand for acrylic fibers is limited. Pull up is still limited. Constrained by this, manufacturers are more cautious in their offer prices, and they tend to increase slightly. By August, the price of acrylic staple fiber gradually recovered to around 17,000 yuan/ton.
The cost of pushing up is unpredictable
After the domestic acrylic fiber market reached its bottom at the end of June, it was supported by the strong bottom and the rising cost of raw materials. The market’s low replenishment and buying atmosphere gradually increased, and the manufacturers’ prices were expected to increase, and the market showed a steady upward trend. In early August, the spot of acrylic staple fiber was negotiated to between RMB 17,000 and RMB 17,500 per ton, but due to the lack of demand support from the downstream yarn market, there was no significant improvement in the production and sales trend. Subject to this restriction, the upward path for the price of acrylic fiber is relatively sluggish and it is mainly pushed up. Acrylic fiber manufacturers still find it difficult to smoothly pass on raw material gains and face greater cost pressures.
Therefore, in August and September, the prices of acrylic fiber manufacturers are still facing higher costs and are expected to push up. Although the demand side lacks upward support, there is still room for some manufacturers to increase their prices, but due to the temporary lack of demand growth, the market is moving upwards. Relatively gentle, slightly up-based. In September, the price of acrylic fibers was at a high level, and the estimated price was about 18,500 yuan/ton. In October, the market may continue to consolidate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price trend of acrylonitrile in the upstream raw materials, as the supply of acrylonitrile in the market tends to be stable and new domestic units are put into operation, or bring pressure on acrylonitrile prices. At the same time, the downstream market orders and domestic sales may have some changes, or affect the demand for acrylic fibers. In general, the short-term cost of acrylic fiber is still rising, but the medium-to-long-term optimistic expectations are still cautious.
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